DER Derby County — Season Outlook

Q: Can Derby County win the Championship this season?

Footyntel's model gives Derby County a 0.1% chance of winning the Championship 2026/27 title, currently 22nd of 24 clubs by title probability. They are projected to finish around 24th on about 49 points.

Q: Will Derby County be relegated?

The model gives Derby County a 32.3% chance of relegation this season. Their most likely finish is 24th, with an 80% range of 11th–24th.

Q: Where will Derby County finish in the Championship?

Projected finish: about 18th (most likely 24th), 80% likely between 11th and 24th. Title 0.1%, play-offs (top 6) 2.8%, relegation 32.3%.

Championship 2026/27 · currently 22nd · 5 pts · LLLDD

League table Title race Relegation battle

Win title

<1%

Play-offs (top 6)

2.8%

Relegation

32.3%

Projected points49

Projected finish18th

Most likely finish24th

80% range11th–24th

Where Derby County finish

Champions <1%Play-offs (top 6) 2.8%Mid-tableRelegation 32.3%

Footyntel projects Derby County to finish around 18th in the Championship 2026/27 — most likely 24th, with an 80% range of 11th to 24th — on roughly 49 points. Their chance of winning the title is 0.1%, of play-offs (top 6) 2.8%, and of relegation 32.3%. On current form they are not yet safe from the drop.

Season trend

How Derby County's title, play-offs (top 6) and relegation probabilities have moved.

📈 Trend tracking has just started. This chart shows how the probabilities move through the season — it fills in as daily snapshots build up, so check back in a few days.

Derby County's remaining fixtures

Model win / draw / loss for Derby County in each match (H home, A away).

A QPR23·24·53 14 Oct H Stoke37·26·38 17 Oct A Sheffield Utd26·24·50 24 Oct A Millwall21·21·59 31 Oct H Norwich38·23·40 3 Nov H Bolton45·24·31 6 Nov A Southampton12·16·73 21 Nov A Wolverhampton20·21·59 24 Nov H Watford44·27·29 28 Nov A Middlesbrough15·19·66 5 Dec H Bristol City38·25·36 9 Dec A Blackburn27·25·48 12 Dec H Lincoln City40·28·32 19 Dec A Preston NE34·26·40 26 Dec H Sheffield Utd39·26·35 29 Dec H Blackburn40·26·34 1 Jan A Stoke24·24·53 16 Jan H Millwall34·24·43 23 Jan A Norwich23·21·56 26 Jan A Bolton30·24·46 30 Jan H Southampton22·21·58 6 Feb A Birmingham22·23·54 13 Feb H QPR35·26·38 16 Feb H Burnley51·23·26 20 Feb A Wrexham26·24·50 27 Feb A Cardiff28·25·47 2 Mar H Charlton44·29·28 6 Mar A Watford30·27·42 13 Mar H Middlesbrough26·23·51 16 Mar H Preston NE49·25·27 20 Mar A Lincoln City27·27·45 3 Apr A West Brom23·26·50 7 Apr H West Ham27·22·51 10 Apr A Swansea16·22·61 17 Apr H Portsmouth42·26·32 20 Apr A Bristol City25·24·51 24 Apr H Wolverhampton33·24·43 1 May

FAQ

Can Derby County win the Championship this season?

Footyntel's model gives Derby County a 0.1% chance of winning the Championship 2026/27 title, currently 22nd of 24 clubs by title probability. They are projected to finish around 24th on about 49 points.

Will Derby County be relegated?

The model gives Derby County a 32.3% chance of relegation this season. Their most likely finish is 24th, with an 80% range of 11th–24th.

Where will Derby County finish in the Championship?

Projected finish: about 18th (most likely 24th), 80% likely between 11th and 24th. Title 0.1%, play-offs (top 6) 2.8%, relegation 32.3%.