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Championship · Fixtures

Derby County vs Burnley — Match Prediction

Championship 2026/27 · Matchday 33 · Sat 20 Feb, 00:00 UTC

Derby County win
51%
Draw
23%
Burnley win
26%
Most likely score1–1
Projected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.5 goals57%
Both teams score58%
Derby CountyLLLDD22nd · 5 pts
BurnleyLDLDW24th · 4 pts

Ahead of Derby County v Burnley in the Championship on 20 February 2027, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Derby County the most likely outcome at 51%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–1, with projected goals of 1.8 for Derby County and 1.2 for Burnley. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and 58% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Derby County goals down (↓), Burnley goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 1 meeting — Derby County 0W · 1D · 0L.

Burnley1–1Derby County

Recent form

Derby County
Dvs Wrexham1–1
D@ Burnley1–1
Lvs Birmingham1–2
Lvs West Brom0–1
L@ West Ham0–3
Burnley
W@ Watford4–0
Dvs Derby County1–1
L@ Swansea1–3
D@ Wrexham1–1
Lvs Bristol City1–2
What would each result do to the table?
Lock it in the interactive simulator: Derby County winDrawBurnley win

FAQ

Who will win Derby County vs Burnley?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Derby County the most likely result at 51%. Full split: Derby County win 51%, draw 23%, Burnley win 26%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Derby County vs Burnley?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–1 (Derby County 1–1 Burnley). Projected goals: Derby County 1.8, Burnley 1.2.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring.

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