Footyntel.

Primeira Liga 2026/27 — Table & Season Projection

Simulated title, top 4 and relegation probabilities for every club.

Updated 11 October 2026 · 239 fixtures remaining · model projection, not a prediction

Title raceRelegation battleAll fixtures & predictions

⚙️ These percentages come from running the rest of the season 50,000 times with a Poisson goals model. Early in the season the numbers are wide and move a lot — treat them as informed estimates, not forecasts.

After 8 matchdays of the Primeira Liga 2026/27 season, Porto lead on 24 points. Across 50,000 simulated seasons, Porto are clear favourites for the title. The top three by title probability are Porto (65.1%), SL Benfica (21.7%), Sporting CP (12.8%). Relegation risk is highest for Casa Pia (74.6%), Rio Ave (42.3%), Estoril Praia (28.9%). It is still early in the season, so these probabilities are wide and will sharpen with more matches.

#TeamPPtsGDTitleTop 4Relegation
1 FCPPortoWWWWW 824+16
65.1
99.8
0
2 SPOSporting CPWWDDW 818+11
12.8
95.5
0
3 CD Santa ClaraDWWDW 818+8
<1
37.7
<1
4 BENSL BenficaWWWWL 716+15
21.7
97.2
0
5 ACVAcad. ViseuLWWWW 814+1
<1
10.3
<1
6 FCAAroucaLWDLD 711+3
<1
8.2
<1
7 GILGil VicenteDLLDW 711+1
<1
11
<1
8 SCBBragaWLWDL 7110
<1
24.7
<1
9 AMAAmadoraWDWDL 7100
<1
3.5
1.9
10 ALVAlvercaLDLWW 78-2
0
1.1
4
11 CSMMarítimoLLLDL 88-5
0
0.7
5.5
12 MORMoreirenseLLWDL 88-7
0
<1
10.3
13 FAMFamalicãoLDDDW 77+2
<1
9.9
<1
14 GUIVitória SCWLDLD 75-3
0
<1
10.4
15 CDNCD NacionalLLLLL 74-8
0
<1
21
16 RIORio AveWLLDL 74-10
0
<1
42.3
17 CASCasa PiaLDLWL 84-14
0
0
74.6
18 ESTEstoril PraiaLDLLL 82-8
0
<1
28.9
Title %Top 4 %Relegation %

Match predictions all 239 fixtures →

Model win / draw / win probability for the next fixtures — tap any match for the full prediction.

Rio Ave v CD Nacional26·25·49  Sun 11 Oct, 14:30 UTCSL Benfica v Vitória SC78·15·8  Sun 11 Oct, 17:00 UTCArouca v Amadora39·22·39  Sun 11 Oct, 19:30 UTCFamalicão v Alverca50·28·23  Mon 12 Oct, 19:15 UTCBraga v Gil Vicente35·31·34  Mon 19 Oct, 19:15 UTCVitória SC v Marítimo32·28·40  Fri 23 Oct, 19:45 UTCAmadora v Casa Pia63·21·16  Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 UTCAlverca v Arouca27·24·50  Sat 24 Oct, 17:00 UTCGil Vicente v Porto9·23·68  Sat 24 Oct, 19:30 UTCEstoril Praia v Moreirense35·27·39  Sun 25 Oct, 15:30 UTC

Frequently asked

Can Porto win the Primeira Liga this season?

In Footyntel's 50,000-run simulation, Porto win the 2026/27 title in about 65.1% of seasons — the highest of any club — projected to finish on roughly 85 points.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation?

The highest relegation probabilities are Casa Pia (74.6%), Rio Ave (42.3%), Estoril Praia (28.9%). These are model estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.

Who is favourite for top 4?

By top 4 probability: Porto (99.8%), SL Benfica (97.2%), Sporting CP (95.5%), Santa Clara (37.7%).

How are these Primeira Liga projections calculated?

Each team gets an attack and defence strength from goals scored and conceded so far (regressed toward the league average early in the season). Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson goals model 50,000 times, resampling each team's strength each season to reflect uncertainty; the share of simulations a team finishes 1st, in the top 4, or in the bottom 2 gives its probabilities. Order of tied teams uses points, then goal difference, then goals scored (exact head-to-head rules are simplified). Data: football-data.org. A statistical model, not a guarantee.

Open data

Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0): projection JSON · projection CSV · standings CSV