Primeira Liga · Relegation
Primeira Liga 2026/27 Relegation Battle
Updated 11 October 2026 · model projection from 50,000 simulations
League tableTitle raceFixtures
Casa Pia carry the highest relegation risk in the Primeira Liga 2026/27 at 74.6%. Casa Pia 74.6%, Rio Ave 42.3%, Estoril Praia 28.9% are most in danger.
Relegation probability over time
📈 Trend tracking has just started. This chart shows how the probabilities move through the season — it fills in as daily snapshots build up, so check back in a few days.
In danger
| # | Team | Pts | Relegation % | Proj pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | CAS Casa Pia | 4 | 74.6% | 20 | @Amadora 16% |
| 16 | RIO Rio Ave | 4 | 42.3% | 26 | CD Nacional 26% |
| 18 | EST Estoril Praia | 2 | 28.9% | 28 | Moreirense 35% |
| 15 | CDN CD Nacional | 4 | 21% | 31 | @Rio Ave 49% |
| 14 | GUI Vitória SC | 5 | 10.4% | 34 | @SL Benfica 8% |
| 12 | MOR Moreirense | 8 | 10.3% | 35 | @Estoril Praia 39% |
| 11 | CSM Marítimo | 8 | 5.5% | 38 | @Vitória SC 40% |
| 10 | ALV Alverca | 8 | 4% | 40 | @Famalicão 23% |
| 9 | AMA Amadora | 10 | 1.9% | 44 | @Arouca 39% |
FAQ
Who will be relegated from the Primeira Liga?
The model's highest relegation risks are Casa Pia (74.6%), Rio Ave (42.3%), Estoril Praia (28.9%). These are estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.