Footyntel.

Premier League 2026/27 — Table & Season Projection

Simulated title, top 4 and relegation probabilities for every club.

Updated 11 October 2026 · 324 fixtures remaining · model projection, not a prediction

Title raceRelegation battleAll fixtures & predictions

⚙️ These percentages come from running the rest of the season 50,000 times with a Poisson goals model. Early in the season the numbers are wide and move a lot — treat them as informed estimates, not forecasts.

After 6 matchdays of the Premier League 2026/27 season, Man City lead on 15 points. Across 50,000 simulated seasons, Man City are narrow favourites for the title. The top three by title probability are Man City (46.4%), Arsenal (27.6%), Brighton Hove (17.5%). Relegation risk is highest for Coventry City (58.5%), Tottenham (47.5%), Crystal Palace (35.1%), Fulham (34.1%). It is still early in the season, so these probabilities are wide and will sharpen with more matches.

#TeamPPtsGDTitleTop 4Relegation
1 MCIMan CityWWWWW 515+8
46.4
90.5
<1
2 ARSArsenalWWWLW 615+5
27.6
86.5
<1
3 BHABrighton HoveLDWWW 613+13
17.5
75.9
<1
4 BREBrentfordDDDWD 610+6
2.1
28.9
0.7
5 CHEChelseaWLDLW 610+2
1.5
22.7
1.9
6 LEELeeds UnitedDDWDL 69+3
<1
12
2.6
7 LIVLiverpoolDDWDW 59+3
2.2
27.8
0.9
8 EVEEvertonWDDDW 59+3
0.7
13.9
1.9
9 IPSIpswich TownLLWLW 69-3
<1
3.1
14.2
10 HULHull CityWWDDL 58+2
<1
8.4
4.5
11 NEWNewcastleDWDLW 580
<1
8.9
6.4
12 MUNMan UnitedWDLDD 660
0.6
13.7
3.2
13 NOTNottinghamLDDWL 55-1
<1
2.7
12.9
14 AVLAston VillaLDLWD 65-5
<1
2.1
16.7
15 CRYCrystal PalaceLLWLD 54-5
<1
0.7
35.1
16 SUNSunderlandWDLLL 64-6
<1
<1
33.5
17 BOUBournemouthDDDLL 63-6
<1
1.3
25.3
18 TOTTottenhamLDDLD 63-6
<1
<1
47.5
19 COVCoventry CityLLLLW 53-9
0
<1
58.5
20 FULFulhamLLDDL 62-4
<1
<1
34.1
Title %Top 4 %Relegation %

Match predictions all 324 fixtures →

Model win / draw / win probability for the next fixtures — tap any match for the full prediction.

Hull City v Everton36·30·34  Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 UTCCrystal Palace v Nottingham33·28·39  Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 UTCLiverpool v Man City26·24·50  Sun 11 Oct, 15:30 UTCCoventry City v Newcastle24·24·52  Mon 12 Oct, 19:00 UTCEverton v Chelsea45·24·31  Sat 17 Oct, 11:30 UTCFulham v Hull City34·28·39  Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 UTCMan City v Ipswich Town81·12·7  Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 UTCBrentford v Liverpool45·25·31  Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 UTCNewcastle v Aston Villa50·22·27  Sat 17 Oct, 16:30 UTCBournemouth v Sunderland49·24·27  Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Frequently asked

Can Man City win the Premier League this season?

In Footyntel's 50,000-run simulation, Man City win the 2026/27 title in about 46.4% of seasons — the highest of any club — projected to finish on roughly 83 points.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation?

The highest relegation probabilities are Coventry City (58.5%), Tottenham (47.5%), Crystal Palace (35.1%), Fulham (34.1%). These are model estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.

Who is favourite for top 4?

By top 4 probability: Man City (90.5%), Arsenal (86.5%), Brighton Hove (75.9%), Liverpool (27.8%).

How are these Premier League projections calculated?

Each team gets an attack and defence strength from goals scored and conceded so far (regressed toward the league average early in the season). Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson goals model 50,000 times, resampling each team's strength each season to reflect uncertainty; the share of simulations a team finishes 1st, in the top 4, or in the bottom 3 gives its probabilities. Order of tied teams uses points, then goal difference, then goals scored (exact head-to-head rules are simplified). Data: football-data.org. A statistical model, not a guarantee.

Open data

Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0): projection JSON · projection CSV · standings CSV