Footyntel.

Serie A 2026/27 — Table & Season Projection

Simulated title, top 4 and relegation probabilities for every club.

Updated 11 October 2026 · 327 fixtures remaining · model projection, not a prediction

Title raceRelegation battleAll fixtures & predictions

⚙️ These percentages come from running the rest of the season 50,000 times with a Poisson goals model. Early in the season the numbers are wide and move a lot — treat them as informed estimates, not forecasts.

After 6 matchdays of the Serie A 2026/27 season, Inter lead on 16 points. Across 50,000 simulated seasons, Inter are narrow favourites for the title. The top three by title probability are Inter (42.8%), Roma (32.3%), Como 1907 (7.3%). Relegation risk is highest for Venezia FC (59.3%), Parma (48.6%), Lecce (37.9%), Fiorentina (34.8%). It is still early in the season, so these probabilities are wide and will sharpen with more matches.

#TeamPPtsGDTitleTop 4Relegation
1 INTInterWWWDW 616+10
42.8
89.4
0
2 ROMRomaWWWWD 513+11
32.3
85.6
<1
3 LAZLazioWWWDW 513+5
2
25.6
<1
4 CAGCagliariWLWWW 512+3
<1
6.4
1.1
5 MILMilanWWDDW 511+6
6.3
47.6
<1
6 NAPNapoliLLWDW 610+4
2.3
31
<1
7 JUVJuventusWWDLW 510+4
6.2
46.4
<1
8 COMComo 1907DWWWL 510+3
7.3
51.4
<1
9 FROFrosinoneWWDWL 610+2
<1
4.6
2
10 SASSassuoloLWDWL 570
<1
3.5
5.1
11 ATAAtalantaWWLLL 56-2
<1
5.7
2.2
12 USLLecceWLLWL 56-5
0
<1
37.9
13 UDIUdineseDWLLL 54-3
<1
1.2
12.4
14 TORTorinoLLWLD 54-3
<1
<1
26.4
15 MONMonzaLLDLW 54-4
<1
0.5
21.8
16 GENGenoaLLDLW 64-6
0
<1
34.3
17 PARParmaLDLWL 64-6
0
0
48.6
18 FIOFiorentinaLLWDL 64-7
0
<1
34.8
19 BOLBolognaLLDLD 52-3
<1
0.6
13.8
20 VENVenezia FCLLLLL 50-9
0
<1
59.3
Title %Top 4 %Relegation %

Match predictions all 327 fixtures →

Model win / draw / win probability for the next fixtures — tap any match for the full prediction.

Como 1907 v Roma31·26·43  Sun 11 Oct, 10:30 UTCLecce v Bologna26·28·46  Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 UTCLazio v Monza61·21·17  Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 UTCSassuolo v Milan22·22·55  Sun 11 Oct, 16:00 UTCCagliari v Juventus23·28·50  Sun 11 Oct, 18:45 UTCAtalanta v Venezia FC63·21·16  Mon 12 Oct, 16:30 UTCTorino v Udinese36·23·42  Mon 12 Oct, 18:45 UTCFrosinone v Sassuolo45·23·32  Fri 16 Oct, 18:45 UTCVenezia FC v Napoli14·19·68  Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 UTCBologna v Inter14·17·69  Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 UTC

Frequently asked

Can Inter win the Serie A this season?

In Footyntel's 50,000-run simulation, Inter win the 2026/27 title in about 42.8% of seasons — the highest of any club — projected to finish on roughly 85 points.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation?

The highest relegation probabilities are Venezia FC (59.3%), Parma (48.6%), Lecce (37.9%), Fiorentina (34.8%). These are model estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.

Who is favourite for top 4?

By top 4 probability: Inter (89.4%), Roma (85.6%), Como 1907 (51.4%), Milan (47.6%).

How are these Serie A projections calculated?

Each team gets an attack and defence strength from goals scored and conceded so far (regressed toward the league average early in the season). Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson goals model 50,000 times, resampling each team's strength each season to reflect uncertainty; the share of simulations a team finishes 1st, in the top 4, or in the bottom 3 gives its probabilities. Order of tied teams uses points, then goal difference, then goals scored (exact head-to-head rules are simplified). Data: football-data.org. A statistical model, not a guarantee.

Open data

Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0): projection JSON · projection CSV · standings CSV