Footyntel.

Ligue 1 2026/27 — Table & Season Projection

Simulated title, top 4 and relegation / play-off probabilities for every club.

Updated 11 October 2026 · 255 fixtures remaining · model projection, not a prediction

Title raceRelegation battleAll fixtures & predictions

⚙️ These percentages come from running the rest of the season 50,000 times with a Poisson goals model. Early in the season the numbers are wide and move a lot — treat them as informed estimates, not forecasts.

After 6 matchdays of the Ligue 1 2026/27 season, Monaco lead on 14 points. Across 50,000 simulated seasons, the title race is open, with PSG marginally ahead for the title. The top three by title probability are PSG (32.6%), Olympique Lyon (17%), Lille (15.6%). Relegation risk is highest for Le Havre (55.6%), Nice (51.2%), Troyes (49.2%), Angers SCO (38.4%). It is still early in the season, so these probabilities are wide and will sharpen with more matches.

#TeamPPtsGDTitleTop 4Relegation
1 ASMMonacoWWDWD 614+5
14.1
53.8
<1
2 LILLilleDWWLW 613+5
15.6
59
<1
3 LYOOlympique LyonDWDWL 611+7
17
60.7
<1
4 PFCParis FCWWDWL 611+4
3.6
25.5
1.4
5 PSGPSGDLWWW 611+3
32.6
76.7
<1
6 RENStade RennaisDWWWL 510-1
3.6
23.1
3.7
7 BREBrestDWLLW 68+3
0.9
9.9
8.1
8 FCLLorientLWDLW 680
0.5
6.9
9.2
9 RCLRC LensLLDLW 67+1
6.2
35.7
1.3
10 RC StrasbourgLWWDL 570
3.4
21.8
4.3
11 ANGAngers SCOWLDWL 67-3
<1
0.6
38.4
12 LMFLe MansLDDWL 66-2
<1
3.8
19.5
13 TOUToulouseDLDWD 66-2
0.5
5.9
13.4
14 AJAAuxerreLLLWW 56-5
<1
1.3
37.5
15 NICNiceDLDLW 55-3
<1
<1
51.2
16 ETRTroyesDWLLL 54-7
<1
0.6
49.2
17 MARMarseilleWLLLL 53-1
1.7
14.4
6.6
18 HACLe HavreDLDLL 62-4
<1
<1
55.6
Title %Top 4 %Relegation %

Match predictions all 255 fixtures →

Model win / draw / win probability for the next fixtures — tap any match for the full prediction.

Nice v Strasbourg26·24·50  Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 UTCStade Rennais v Auxerre65·19·17  Sun 11 Oct, 15:15 UTCTroyes v Marseille27·23·50  Sun 11 Oct, 18:45 UTCLe Mans v Toulouse46·22·32  Fri 16 Oct, 18:45 UTCStrasbourg v PSG30·22·48  Sat 17 Oct, 15:15 UTCTroyes v RC Lens21·21·58  Sat 17 Oct, 18:45 UTCLille v Brest62·22·16  Sat 17 Oct, 18:45 UTCAngers SCO v Marseille28·25·47  Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 UTCLorient v Monaco35·26·39  Sun 18 Oct, 15:15 UTCParis FC v Stade Rennais52·23·25  Sun 18 Oct, 15:15 UTC

Frequently asked

Can PSG win the Ligue 1 this season?

In Footyntel's 50,000-run simulation, PSG win the 2026/27 title in about 32.6% of seasons — the highest of any club — projected to finish on roughly 66 points.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation / play-off?

The highest relegation / play-off probabilities are Le Havre (55.6%), Nice (51.2%), Troyes (49.2%), Angers SCO (38.4%). These are model estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.

Who is favourite for top 4?

By top 4 probability: PSG (76.7%), Olympique Lyon (60.7%), Lille (59%), Monaco (53.8%).

How are these Ligue 1 projections calculated?

Each team gets an attack and defence strength from goals scored and conceded so far (regressed toward the league average early in the season). Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson goals model 50,000 times, resampling each team's strength each season to reflect uncertainty; the share of simulations a team finishes 1st, in the top 4, or in the bottom 3 gives its probabilities. Order of tied teams uses points, then goal difference, then goals scored (exact head-to-head rules are simplified). Data: football-data.org. A statistical model, not a guarantee.

Open data

Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0): projection JSON · projection CSV · standings CSV