Footyntel.

Championship 2026/27 — Table & Season Projection

Simulated title, play-offs (top 6) and relegation probabilities for every club.

Updated 11 October 2026 · 446 fixtures remaining · model projection, not a prediction

Title raceRelegation battleAll fixtures & predictions

⚙️ These percentages come from running the rest of the season 50,000 times with a Poisson goals model. Early in the season the numbers are wide and move a lot — treat them as informed estimates, not forecasts.

After 9 matchdays of the Championship 2026/27 season, Swansea lead on 17 points. Across 50,000 simulated seasons, the title race is open, with Southampton marginally ahead for the title. The top three by title probability are Southampton (27.2%), Middlesbrough (16.4%), West Ham (16.4%). Relegation risk is highest for Preston NE (49.8%), Burnley (49.7%), Derby County (32.3%), Watford (23.1%). It is still early in the season, so these probabilities are wide and will sharpen with more matches.

#TeamPPtsGDTitlePlay-offs (top 6)Relegation
1 SWASwanseaDLWWW 817+7
13.6
67.4
<1
2 WHUWest HamWWWDD 815+11
16.4
67.1
<1
3 MIDMiddlesbroughWWDDW 815+4
16.4
68.7
<1
4 WOLWolverhamptonLDWWL 714+5
8.9
51.1
1.3
5 WBAWest BromWWDLL 814+2
1.7
25.2
2.8
6 QPRQPRLDDDD 813+3
2.1
27.4
3.1
7 STKStokeWDWWW 813+1
2
26.9
3.5
8 BRIBristol CityWLLWD 813-1
1.4
21.3
5.1
9 CHACharltonLDDLD 812-3
<1
4.6
17.2
10 BIRBirminghamDLWDW 811+1
2
27.6
3.3
11 MILMillwallWLDDW 8110
3.6
35.2
2.7
12 LINLincoln CityDWWLL 811-1
<1
11.1
9.1
13 SOUSouthamptonDDWWL 810+9
27.2
79.3
<1
14 WREWrexhamDDLWD 810-3
0.6
14
9.1
15 BOLBoltonLLWWL 810-4
<1
6.7
18.9
16 BLABlackburnLLWDW 890
<1
9.2
12.7
17 NORNorwichWWLLL 89-1
1.7
22.2
7
18 SHESheffield UtdLWLLW 89-2
0.5
11.6
11.3
19 PORPortsmouthLLWDD 78-1
<1
8.9
16.5
20 WATWatfordLWLLL 88-3
<1
3.6
23.1
21 CARCardiffLDLWL 87-2
<1
5.9
20.6
22 DERDerby CountyLLLDD 85-7
<1
2.8
32.3
23 PNEPreston NEWLLDL 84-7
<1
1
49.8
24 BURBurnleyLDLDW 84-8
<1
1.1
49.7
Title %Play-offs (top 6) %Relegation %

Match predictions all 446 fixtures →

Model win / draw / win probability for the next fixtures — tap any match for the full prediction.

Southampton v Portsmouth70·17·13  Sun 11 Oct, 11:00 UTCWolverhampton v Bolton61·19·20  Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 UTCWrexham v West Brom40·27·33  Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 UTCMillwall v Swansea38·25·37  Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 UTCCardiff v Watford46·27·27  Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 UTCBurnley v Charlton40·28·32  Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 UTCBristol City v Blackburn47·25·28  Tue 13 Oct, 18:45 UTCBirmingham v Preston NE58·22·19  Tue 13 Oct, 19:00 UTCStoke v Middlesbrough34·24·42  Tue 13 Oct, 19:00 UTCPortsmouth v Sheffield Utd41·26·33  Wed 14 Oct, 18:45 UTC

Frequently asked

Can Southampton win the Championship this season?

In Footyntel's 50,000-run simulation, Southampton win the 2026/27 title in about 27.2% of seasons — the highest of any club — projected to finish on roughly 83 points.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation?

The highest relegation probabilities are Preston NE (49.8%), Burnley (49.7%), Derby County (32.3%), Watford (23.1%). These are model estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.

Who is favourite for play-offs (top 6)?

By play-offs (top 6) probability: Southampton (79.3%), Middlesbrough (68.7%), Swansea (67.4%), West Ham (67.1%), Wolverhampton (51.1%).

How are these Championship projections calculated?

Each team gets an attack and defence strength from goals scored and conceded so far (regressed toward the league average early in the season). Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson goals model 50,000 times, resampling each team's strength each season to reflect uncertainty; the share of simulations a team finishes 1st, in the play-offs (top 6), or in the bottom 3 gives its probabilities. Order of tied teams uses points, then goal difference, then goals scored (exact head-to-head rules are simplified). Data: football-data.org. A statistical model, not a guarantee.

Open data

Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0): projection JSON · projection CSV · standings CSV