Footyntel.

La Liga 2026/27 — Table & Season Projection

Simulated title, top 4 and relegation probabilities for every club.

Updated 11 October 2026 · 306 fixtures remaining · model projection, not a prediction

Title raceRelegation battleAll fixtures & predictions

⚙️ These percentages come from running the rest of the season 50,000 times with a Poisson goals model. Early in the season the numbers are wide and move a lot — treat them as informed estimates, not forecasts.

After 8 matchdays of the La Liga 2026/27 season, Barça lead on 24 points. Across 50,000 simulated seasons, Barça are clear favourites for the title. The top three by title probability are Barça (87.5%), Real Madrid (8.5%), Atleti (3.4%). Relegation risk is highest for Málaga (53.5%), Valencia (50.8%), Santander (32.8%), Getafe (30.3%). It is still early in the season, so these probabilities are wide and will sharpen with more matches.

#TeamPPtsGDTitleTop 4Relegation
1 FCBBarçaWWWWW 824+27
87.5
99.9
0
2 ATLAtletiLWWWW 819+10
3.4
84.9
0
3 RMAReal MadridLWWLW 818+11
8.5
94
0
4 BETReal BetisLWWWD 716+2
<1
44.5
<1
5 SEVSevilla FCLDWWL 713+1
<1
11.9
2.8
6 ALAAlavésWLLDL 811+4
<1
8.7
2.8
7 DEPDeportivoWWDLD 710+2
<1
8.7
4
8 RSOReal SociedadWDWLW 710-4
<1
6
7.5
9 ATHAthleticLWWDD 68+1
<1
4.5
8.2
10 VILVillarrealLLWWL 880
<1
19
1.3
11 ESPEspanyolDWLLD 880
0
2.4
11
12 RAYRayo VallecanoLWLWD 78-5
<1
2.2
16.4
13 GETGetafeDDLWL 88-6
0
<1
30.3
14 OSAOsasunaWLLLD 78-7
0
0.6
27.6
15 CELCeltaLDDDW 77+2
<1
8.6
3.6
16 SANSantanderWLWLL 77-10
0
0.9
32.8
17 LEVLevanteDWDLL 65-4
0
1.7
23.6
18 ELCElcheLLDLW 75-6
<1
1.5
23.7
19 MALMálagaDDLLD 84-9
0
<1
53.5
19 VALValenciaLLLWL 74-9
0
<1
50.8
Title %Top 4 %Relegation %

Match predictions all 306 fixtures →

Model win / draw / win probability for the next fixtures — tap any match for the full prediction.

Elche v Celta31·25·44  Sun 11 Oct, 12:00 UTCReal Sociedad v Deportivo41·24·35  Sun 11 Oct, 14:15 UTCReal Betis v Osasuna64·21·14  Sun 11 Oct, 16:30 UTCSantander v Valencia52·22·26  Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 UTCLevante v Sevilla FC40·24·36  Mon 12 Oct, 19:00 UTCDeportivo v Levante58·21·20  Fri 16 Oct, 19:00 UTCEspanyol v Atleti25·24·52  Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 UTCVillarreal v Elche70·16·15  Sat 17 Oct, 14:15 UTCReal Betis v Barça15·18·67  Sat 17 Oct, 16:30 UTCValencia v Athletic31·29·40  Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Frequently asked

Can Barça win the La Liga this season?

In Footyntel's 50,000-run simulation, Barça win the 2026/27 title in about 87.5% of seasons — the highest of any club — projected to finish on roughly 98 points.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation?

The highest relegation probabilities are Málaga (53.5%), Valencia (50.8%), Santander (32.8%), Getafe (30.3%). These are model estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.

Who is favourite for top 4?

By top 4 probability: Barça (99.9%), Real Madrid (94%), Atleti (84.9%), Real Betis (44.5%).

How are these La Liga projections calculated?

Each team gets an attack and defence strength from goals scored and conceded so far (regressed toward the league average early in the season). Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson goals model 50,000 times, resampling each team's strength each season to reflect uncertainty; the share of simulations a team finishes 1st, in the top 4, or in the bottom 3 gives its probabilities. Order of tied teams uses points, then goal difference, then goals scored (exact head-to-head rules are simplified). Data: football-data.org. A statistical model, not a guarantee.

Open data

Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0): projection JSON · projection CSV · standings CSV