La Liga · Relegation
La Liga 2026/27 Relegation Battle
Updated 11 October 2026 · model projection from 50,000 simulations
League tableTitle raceFixtures
Málaga carry the highest relegation risk in the La Liga 2026/27 at 53.5%. Málaga 53.5%, Valencia 50.8%, Santander 32.8% are most in danger.
Relegation probability over time
📈 Trend tracking has just started. This chart shows how the probabilities move through the season — it fills in as daily snapshots build up, so check back in a few days.
In danger
| # | Team | Pts | Relegation % | Proj pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | MAL Málaga | 4 | 53.5% | 34 | Real Sociedad 34% |
| 19 | VAL Valencia | 4 | 50.8% | 34 | @Santander 26% |
| 16 | SAN Santander | 7 | 32.8% | 40 | Valencia 52% |
| 13 | GET Getafe | 8 | 30.3% | 39 | Rayo Vallecano 34% |
| 14 | OSA Osasuna | 8 | 27.6% | 40 | @Real Betis 14% |
| 18 | ELC Elche | 5 | 23.7% | 42 | Celta 31% |
| 17 | LEV Levante | 5 | 23.6% | 42 | Sevilla FC 40% |
| 12 | RAY Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 16.4% | 44 | @Getafe 34% |
| 11 | ESP Espanyol | 8 | 11% | 46 | Atleti 25% |
| 9 | ATH Athletic | 8 | 8.2% | 48 | @Valencia 40% |
FAQ
Who will be relegated from the La Liga?
The model's highest relegation risks are Málaga (53.5%), Valencia (50.8%), Santander (32.8%). These are estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.