Footyntel.

Eredivisie 2026/27 — Table & Season Projection

Simulated title, top 4 and relegation / play-off probabilities for every club.

Updated 11 October 2026 · 238 fixtures remaining · model projection, not a prediction

Title raceRelegation battleAll fixtures & predictions

⚙️ These percentages come from running the rest of the season 50,000 times with a Poisson goals model. Early in the season the numbers are wide and move a lot — treat them as informed estimates, not forecasts.

After 8 matchdays of the Eredivisie 2026/27 season, Feyenoord lead on 20 points. Across 50,000 simulated seasons, PSV are narrow favourites for the title. The top three by title probability are PSV (44.9%), Feyenoord (37.9%), Ajax (6.6%). Relegation risk is highest for Zwolle (70.5%), Willem II (60.2%), Den Haag (45.9%), Sparta (34.3%). It is still early in the season, so these probabilities are wide and will sharpen with more matches.

#TeamPPtsGDTitleTop 4Relegation
1 FEYFeyenoordDWWWW 820+20
37.9
92.1
0
2 PSVPSVWWWLW 819+16
44.9
94.6
0
3 AZAZWWDWL 819+10
5.2
54.7
<1
4 TWETwenteDWWWD 817+8
4.5
53.4
<1
5 AJAAjaxLWWDD 815+12
6.6
62.1
<1
6 SITSittardWWLWD 814-1
<1
4.1
2.5
7 EXCExcelsiorWWDLD 711+6
<1
9.4
1.1
8 GOAGo AheadLDDDD 811+2
<1
6.6
1.6
9 GROGroningenLLDDW 711+2
<1
10.8
1
10 HEEHeerenveenDLDWL 890
<1
3.5
2.6
11 NECNECLDLDD 89-1
<1
7.7
1.5
12 SPASpartaLDLLD 86-7
0
<1
34.3
13 TELTelstarLDLDL 75-7
0
<1
25.9
14 CAMCambuurLLDWD 75-9
<1
<1
31.2
15 UTRUtrechtDLDWL 75-13
<1
<1
21.6
16 ZWOZwolleWLDLL 74-14
0
<1
70.5
17 ADODen HaagLDLLD 72-10
0
<1
45.9
18 WIIWillem IIDLDLL 72-14
0
<1
60.2
Title %Top 4 %Relegation %

Match predictions all 238 fixtures →

Model win / draw / win probability for the next fixtures — tap any match for the full prediction.

Utrecht v Willem II45·21·35  Sun 11 Oct, 10:15 UTCZwolle v Cambuur21·19·60  Sun 11 Oct, 12:30 UTCTelstar v Den Haag35·25·40  Sun 11 Oct, 12:30 UTCExcelsior v Groningen32·23·45  Sun 11 Oct, 14:45 UTCHeerenveen v Excelsior31·24·45  Fri 16 Oct, 18:00 UTCDen Haag v PSV4·6·90  Sat 17 Oct, 14:30 UTCTelstar v Feyenoord6·11·83  Sat 17 Oct, 18:00 UTCSparta v Willem II39·22·39  Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 UTCZwolle v Go Ahead10·13·77  Sun 18 Oct, 10:15 UTCCambuur v AZ11·14·74  Sun 18 Oct, 12:30 UTC

Frequently asked

Can PSV win the Eredivisie this season?

In Footyntel's 50,000-run simulation, PSV win the 2026/27 title in about 44.9% of seasons — the highest of any club — projected to finish on roughly 78 points.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation / play-off?

The highest relegation / play-off probabilities are Zwolle (70.5%), Willem II (60.2%), Den Haag (45.9%), Sparta (34.3%). These are model estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.

Who is favourite for top 4?

By top 4 probability: PSV (94.6%), Feyenoord (92.1%), Ajax (62.1%), AZ (54.7%).

How are these Eredivisie projections calculated?

Each team gets an attack and defence strength from goals scored and conceded so far (regressed toward the league average early in the season). Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson goals model 50,000 times, resampling each team's strength each season to reflect uncertainty; the share of simulations a team finishes 1st, in the top 4, or in the bottom 3 gives its probabilities. Order of tied teams uses points, then goal difference, then goals scored (exact head-to-head rules are simplified). Data: football-data.org. A statistical model, not a guarantee.

Open data

Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0): projection JSON · projection CSV · standings CSV