Footyntel.

Bundesliga 2026/27 — Table & Season Projection

Simulated title, top 4 and relegation / play-off probabilities for every club.

Updated 11 October 2026 · 263 fixtures remaining · model projection, not a prediction

Title raceRelegation battleAll fixtures & predictions

⚙️ These percentages come from running the rest of the season 50,000 times with a Poisson goals model. Early in the season the numbers are wide and move a lot — treat them as informed estimates, not forecasts.

After 5 matchdays of the Bundesliga 2026/27 season, Dortmund lead on 13 points. Across 50,000 simulated seasons, Bayern are clear favourites for the title. The top three by title probability are Bayern (69.5%), Dortmund (17.5%), RB Leipzig (5.2%). Relegation risk is highest for Union Berlin (62.2%), M'gladbach (61.7%), HSV (45.9%), 1. FC Köln (26.7%). It is still early in the season, so these probabilities are wide and will sharpen with more matches.

#TeamPPtsGDTitleTop 4Relegation
1 BVBDortmundWWWWD 513+7
17.5
84.3
<1
2 FCBBayernWDWWD 511+12
69.5
98.4
0
3 SCFFreiburgWWWD 410+9
2.8
40.7
<1
4 B04LeverkusenLWDWW 510+6
4
54.5
<1
5 RBLRB LeipzigWLWLW 59+10
5.2
59.8
<1
6 FCAAugsburgWWDLD 58+5
<1
12.1
3.6
7 SVWBremenLWDWD 580
<1
3.3
11.8
8 M05MainzDWLWL 57+3
<1
7.3
6.1
9 ELVElversbergWWLDL 570
<1
5.8
7.2
10 VFBStuttgartLWLLW 56-1
0.5
21.2
1.8
11 HSVHSVLLLWW 56-10
0
<1
45.9
12 S04SchalkeLDWD 45-1
<1
3.8
12.8
13 SGEFrankfurtDLWDL 55-7
<1
1.8
21.3
14 KOE1. FC KölnWLDL 44-3
<1
1.6
26.7
15 SCPSC PaderbornDLLWL 54-4
<1
0.9
26
16 UNBUnion BerlinDLLLW 54-12
0
<1
62.2
17 TSGHoffenheimLLWLL 53-4
<1
4
12
18 BMGM'gladbachLLLL 40-10
0
<1
61.7
Title %Top 4 %Relegation %

Match predictions all 263 fixtures →

Model win / draw / win probability for the next fixtures — tap any match for the full prediction.

1. FC Köln v M'gladbach67·17·17  Sun 11 Oct, 13:30 UTCFreiburg v Schalke71·17·12  Sun 11 Oct, 15:30 UTCFrankfurt v 1. FC Köln61·17·22  Fri 16 Oct, 18:30 UTCUnion Berlin v Dortmund12·17·71  Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 UTCHSV v Stuttgart27·22·51  Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 UTCBremen v SC Paderborn54·23·23  Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 UTCElversberg v Augsburg52·21·27  Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 UTCSchalke v Mainz47·23·30  Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 UTCBayern v RB Leipzig81·11·8  Sat 17 Oct, 16:30 UTCLeverkusen v Freiburg62·18·20  Sun 18 Oct, 13:30 UTC

Frequently asked

Can Bayern win the Bundesliga this season?

In Footyntel's 50,000-run simulation, Bayern win the 2026/27 title in about 69.5% of seasons — the highest of any club — projected to finish on roughly 82 points.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation / play-off?

The highest relegation / play-off probabilities are Union Berlin (62.2%), M'gladbach (61.7%), HSV (45.9%), 1. FC Köln (26.7%). These are model estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.

Who is favourite for top 4?

By top 4 probability: Bayern (98.4%), Dortmund (84.3%), RB Leipzig (59.8%), Leverkusen (54.5%).

How are these Bundesliga projections calculated?

Each team gets an attack and defence strength from goals scored and conceded so far (regressed toward the league average early in the season). Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson goals model 50,000 times, resampling each team's strength each season to reflect uncertainty; the share of simulations a team finishes 1st, in the top 4, or in the bottom 3 gives its probabilities. Order of tied teams uses points, then goal difference, then goals scored (exact head-to-head rules are simplified). Data: football-data.org. A statistical model, not a guarantee.

Open data

Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0): projection JSON · projection CSV · standings CSV