Bundesliga · Relegation
Bundesliga 2026/27 Relegation Battle
Updated 11 October 2026 · model projection from 50,000 simulations
League tableTitle raceFixtures
Union Berlin carry the highest relegation / play-off risk in the Bundesliga 2026/27 at 62.2%. Union Berlin 62.2%, M'gladbach 61.7%, HSV 45.9% are most in danger.
Relegation probability over time
📈 Trend tracking has just started. This chart shows how the probabilities move through the season — it fills in as daily snapshots build up, so check back in a few days.
In danger
| # | Team | Pts | Relegation % | Proj pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | UNB Union Berlin | 4 | 62.2% | 28 | Dortmund 12% |
| 18 | BMG M'gladbach | 0 | 61.7% | 28 | @1. FC Köln 17% |
| 11 | HSV HSV | 6 | 45.9% | 32 | Stuttgart 27% |
| 14 | KOE 1. FC Köln | 4 | 26.7% | 37 | M'gladbach 67% |
| 15 | SCP SC Paderborn | 4 | 26% | 37 | @Bremen 23% |
| 13 | SGE Frankfurt | 5 | 21.3% | 39 | 1. FC Köln 61% |
| 12 | S04 Schalke | 5 | 12.8% | 42 | @Freiburg 12% |
| 17 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3 | 12% | 43 | @M'gladbach 43% |
| 7 | SVW Bremen | 8 | 11.8% | 43 | SC Paderborn 54% |
| 9 | ELV Elversberg | 7 | 7.2% | 45 | Augsburg 52% |
FAQ
Who will be relegated from the Bundesliga?
The model's highest relegation / play-off risks are Union Berlin (62.2%), M'gladbach (61.7%), HSV (45.9%). These are estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.