Footyntel.

Brasileirão Série A 2026 — Table & Season Projection

Simulated title, top 4 and relegation probabilities for every club.

Updated 11 October 2026 · 88 fixtures remaining · model projection, not a prediction

Title raceRelegation battleAll fixtures & predictions

⚙️ These percentages come from running the rest of the season 50,000 times with a Poisson goals model. Early in the season the numbers are wide and move a lot — treat them as informed estimates, not forecasts.

After 30 matchdays of the Brasileirão Série A 2026 season, Flamengo lead on 61 points. Across 50,000 simulated seasons, Flamengo are clear favourites for the title. The top three by title probability are Flamengo (64.2%), Palmeiras (35.7%), Fluminense (0.1%). Relegation risk is highest for Chapecoense (100%), Clube do Remo (97.9%), Grêmio (58.4%), Internacional (40.6%), Corinthians (28.2%).

#TeamPPtsGDTitleTop 4Relegation
1 FLAFlamengoWWWWD 2961+32
64.2
100
0
2 PALPalmeirasDDWDW 2960+27
35.7
100
0
3 FLUFluminenseDWLWW 2951+12
<1
76.8
0
4 CAPParanaenseDLDWD 2950+11
<1
60.2
0
5 CRUCruzeiroLWLWW 2948+4
0
33.9
0
6 BAHBahiaWWWLL 2946+7
0
19.3
0
7 CAMMineiroLWDWD 2944+5
0
7.4
0
8 SANSantosWWWWD 2942+2
0
2.1
<1
9 PAUSão PauloLWLLW 30390
0
<1
1.2
10 CORCoritibaWLDLL 2938-10
0
<1
5.4
11 RBBBragantinoLDLLD 2937+1
0
<1
1.8
12 VITVitóriaWDLWL 3036-11
0
<1
19.6
13 BOTBotafogoDDWLL 2935-5
0
<1
5.4
14 VASVasco da GamaLWWWD 2935-6
0
0
19.7
15 MIRMirassolLWDWD 2933-9
0
<1
21.6
16 CORCorinthiansLLLLL 2932-4
0
0
28.2
17 SCIInternacionalLLWLW 2931-5
0
0
40.6
18 FBPGrêmioLLLDD 2930-8
0
0
58.4
19 CREClube do RemoLLLDD 3025-15
0
0
97.9
20 CHAChapecoenseLWLDL 2818-28
0
0
100
Title %Top 4 %Relegation %

Match predictions all 88 fixtures →

Model win / draw / win probability for the next fixtures — tap any match for the full prediction.

Mineiro v Santos50·24·26  Sun 11 Oct, 19:00 UTCFlamengo v Fluminense66·20·14  Sun 11 Oct, 20:30 UTCGrêmio v Internacional44·28·28  Sun 11 Oct, 20:30 UTCPalmeiras v Corinthians68·22·10  Sun 11 Oct, 20:30 UTCBahia v Mirassol54·23·22  Sun 11 Oct, 22:30 UTCCoritiba v Botafogo41·24·35  Mon 12 Oct, 19:00 UTCChapecoense v Paranaense24·23·53  Mon 12 Oct, 22:30 UTCBragantino v Cruzeiro39·27·34  Tue 13 Oct, 00:00 UTCMirassol v Internacional49·26·25  Fri 16 Oct, 23:00 UTCBotafogo v Chapecoense68·17·14  Sat 17 Oct, 21:00 UTC

Frequently asked

Can Flamengo win the Brasileirão Série A this season?

In Footyntel's 50,000-run simulation, Flamengo win the 2026 title in about 64.2% of seasons — the highest of any club — projected to finish on roughly 80 points.

Which teams are most at risk of relegation?

The highest relegation probabilities are Chapecoense (100%), Clube do Remo (97.9%), Grêmio (58.4%), Internacional (40.6%), Corinthians (28.2%). These are model estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.

Who is favourite for top 4?

By top 4 probability: Flamengo (100%), Palmeiras (100%), Fluminense (76.8%), Paranaense (60.2%).

How are these Brasileirão Série A projections calculated?

Each team gets an attack and defence strength from goals scored and conceded so far (regressed toward the league average early in the season). Every remaining fixture is simulated with a Poisson goals model 50,000 times, resampling each team's strength each season to reflect uncertainty; the share of simulations a team finishes 1st, in the top 4, or in the bottom 4 gives its probabilities. Order of tied teams uses points, then goal difference, then goals scored (exact head-to-head rules are simplified). Data: football-data.org. A statistical model, not a guarantee.

Open data

Free to use with attribution (CC BY 4.0): projection JSON · projection CSV · standings CSV