Ligue 1 · Relegation
Ligue 1 2026/27 Relegation Battle
Updated 11 October 2026 · model projection from 50,000 simulations
League tableTitle raceFixtures
Le Havre carry the highest relegation / play-off risk in the Ligue 1 2026/27 at 55.6%. Le Havre 55.6%, Nice 51.2%, Troyes 49.2% are most in danger.
Relegation probability over time
📈 Trend tracking has just started. This chart shows how the probabilities move through the season — it fills in as daily snapshots build up, so check back in a few days.
In danger
| # | Team | Pts | Relegation % | Proj pts | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | HAC Le Havre | 2 | 55.6% | 30 | Auxerre 41% |
| 15 | NIC Nice | 5 | 51.2% | 32 | Strasbourg 26% |
| 16 | ETR Troyes | 4 | 49.2% | 32 | Marseille 27% |
| 11 | ANG Angers SCO | 7 | 38.4% | 34 | Marseille 28% |
| 14 | AJA Auxerre | 6 | 37.5% | 35 | @Stade Rennais 17% |
| 12 | LMF Le Mans | 6 | 19.5% | 40 | Toulouse 46% |
| 13 | TOU Toulouse | 6 | 13.4% | 43 | @Le Mans 32% |
| 8 | FCL Lorient | 8 | 9.2% | 44 | Monaco 35% |
| 7 | BRE Brest | 8 | 8.1% | 46 | @Lille 16% |
| 17 | MAR Marseille | 3 | 6.6% | 48 | @Troyes 50% |
FAQ
Who will be relegated from the Ligue 1?
The model's highest relegation / play-off risks are Le Havre (55.6%), Nice (51.2%), Troyes (49.2%). These are estimates from current form and remaining fixtures, not certainties.