Footyntel.

Premier League · Fixtures

Arsenal vs Newcastle — Match Prediction

Premier League 2026/27 · Matchday 22 · Sat 23 Jan, 15:00 UTC

Arsenal win
71%
Draw
18%
Newcastle win
11%
Most likely score2–0
Projected goals2.3 – 0.8
Over 2.5 goals59%
Both teams score49%
ArsenalWWWLW2nd · 15 pts
NewcastleDWDLW11th · 8 pts

Ahead of Arsenal v Newcastle in the Premier League on 23 January 2027, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Arsenal the most likely outcome at 71%. The single most probable scoreline is 2–0, with projected goals of 2.3 for Arsenal and 0.8 for Newcastle. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and 49% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Arsenal goals down (↓), Newcastle goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings — Arsenal 2W · 0D · 0L.

Arsenal1–0Newcastle
Newcastle1–2Arsenal

Recent form

Arsenal
Wvs Leeds United2–1
L@ Brighton Hove0–3
W@ Sunderland2–0
Wvs Chelsea2–1
W@ Aston Villa1–0
Newcastle
Wvs Hull City2–1
L@ Leeds United1–4
Dvs Bournemouth2–2
W@ Tottenham2–0
Dvs Liverpool2–2
What would each result do to the table?
Lock it in the interactive simulator: Arsenal winDrawNewcastle win

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Newcastle?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Arsenal the most likely result at 71%. Full split: Arsenal win 71%, draw 18%, Newcastle win 11%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Newcastle?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 2–0 (Arsenal 2–0 Newcastle). Projected goals: Arsenal 2.3, Newcastle 0.8.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring.

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