Footyntel.

Premier League · Fixtures

Arsenal 2–1 Leeds United

Premier League 2026/27 · Matchday 6 · Sat 10 Oct, 11:30 UTC · Full time

2 – 1

Arsenal 2–1 Leeds United — Arsenal won. Footyntel's pre-match model had rated Arsenal to win at 64%, and the exact 2–1 scoreline at about 9%.

Pre-match model view

Arsenal win
64%
Draw
23%
Leeds United win
14%
Most likely score1–0
Projected goals1.7 – 0.7
Over 2.5 goals43%
Both teams score40%
ArsenalWWWLW2nd · 15 pts
Leeds UnitedDDWDL8th · 9 pts

Ahead of Arsenal v Leeds United in the Premier League on 10 October 2026, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Arsenal the most likely outcome at 64%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–0, with projected goals of 1.7 for Arsenal and 0.7 for Leeds United. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and 40% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Arsenal goals down (↓), Leeds United goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 3 meetings — Arsenal 3W · 0D · 0L.

Arsenal2–1Leeds United
Leeds United0–4Arsenal
Arsenal5–0Leeds United

Recent form

Arsenal
Wvs Leeds United2–1
L@ Brighton Hove0–3
W@ Sunderland2–0
Wvs Chelsea2–1
W@ Aston Villa1–0
Leeds United
L@ Arsenal1–2
Dvs Crystal Palace0–0
Wvs Newcastle4–1
D@ Brighton Hove1–1
Dvs Brentford1–1
What would each result do to the table?
Lock it in the interactive simulator: Arsenal winDrawLeeds United win

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds United?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Arsenal the most likely result at 64%. Full split: Arsenal win 64%, draw 23%, Leeds United win 14%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Leeds United?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–0 (Arsenal 1–0 Leeds United). Projected goals: Arsenal 1.7, Leeds United 0.7.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring.

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