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Ligue 1 · Fixtures

Lille vs Marseille — Match Prediction

Ligue 1 2026/27 · Matchday 23 · Sat 6 Mar, 00:00 UTC

Lille win
57%
Draw
23%
Marseille win
20%
Most likely score1–0
Projected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.5 goals50%
Both teams score50%
LilleDWWLW2nd · 13 pts
MarseilleWLLLL17th · 3 pts

Ahead of Lille v Marseille in the Ligue 1 on 6 March 2027, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Lille the most likely outcome at 57%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–0, with projected goals of 1.8 for Lille and 0.9 for Marseille. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and 50% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Lille goals down (↓), Marseille goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings — Lille 2W · 0D · 0L.

Marseille1–2Lille
Lille1–0Marseille

Recent form

Lille
Wvs Le Havre1–0
L@ Nice1–2
Wvs Troyes2–0
W@ Toulouse1–0
Dvs PSG2–2
Marseille
Lvs PSG1–2
L@ Stade Rennais0–1
Lvs Paris FC2–3
L@ Monaco0–2
Wvs Strasbourg4–0
What would each result do to the table?
Lock it in the interactive simulator: Lille winDrawMarseille win

FAQ

Who will win Lille vs Marseille?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Lille the most likely result at 57%. Full split: Lille win 57%, draw 23%, Marseille win 20%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Lille vs Marseille?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–0 (Lille 1–0 Marseille). Projected goals: Lille 1.8, Marseille 0.9.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring.

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