Footyntel.

La Liga · Fixtures

Atleti vs Alavés — Match Prediction

La Liga 2026/27 · Matchday 34 · Sun 2 May, 00:00 UTC

Atleti win
63%
Draw
21%
Alavés win
16%
Most likely score2–0
Projected goals2 – 0.9
Over 2.5 goals56%
Both teams score52%
AtletiLWWWW2nd · 19 pts
AlavésWLLDL7th · 11 pts

Ahead of Atleti v Alavés in the La Liga on 2 May 2027, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Atleti the most likely outcome at 63%. The single most probable scoreline is 2–0, with projected goals of 2 for Atleti and 0.9 for Alavés. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and 52% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Atleti goals down (↓), Alavés goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 3 meetings — Atleti 2W · 1D · 0L.

Alavés1–2Atleti
Atleti1–0Alavés
Alavés1–1Atleti

Recent form

Atleti
W@ Alavés2–1
Wvs Real Madrid2–1
Wvs Osasuna4–0
W@ Real Sociedad3–0
L@ Athletic0–3
Alavés
Lvs Atleti1–2
D@ Athletic0–0
Lvs Valencia0–1
L@ Santander1–2
Wvs Osasuna5–2

FAQ

Who will win Atleti vs Alavés?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Atleti the most likely result at 63%. Full split: Atleti win 63%, draw 21%, Alavés win 16%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Atleti vs Alavés?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 2–0 (Atleti 2–0 Alavés). Projected goals: Atleti 2, Alavés 0.9.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring.

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