Footyntel.

La Liga · Fixtures

Alavés 1–2 Atleti

La Liga 2026/27 · Matchday 8 · Sat 10 Oct, 14:15 UTC · Full time

1 – 2

Alavés 1–2 Atleti — Atleti won. Footyntel's pre-match model had rated Atleti to win at 45%, and the exact 1–2 scoreline at about 9%.

Pre-match model view

Alavés win
30%
Draw
25%
Atleti win
45%
Most likely score1–1
Projected goals1.2 – 1.6
Over 2.5 goals52%
Both teams score55%
AlavésWLLDL7th · 11 pts
AtletiLWWWW2nd · 19 pts

Ahead of Alavés v Atleti in the La Liga on 10 October 2026, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes an away win for Atleti the most likely outcome at 45%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–1, with projected goals of 1.2 for Alavés and 1.6 for Atleti. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and 55% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Alavés goals down (↓), Atleti goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 3 meetings — Alavés 0W · 1D · 2L.

Alavés1–2Atleti
Atleti1–0Alavés
Alavés1–1Atleti

Recent form

Alavés
Lvs Atleti1–2
D@ Athletic0–0
Lvs Valencia0–1
L@ Santander1–2
Wvs Osasuna5–2
Atleti
W@ Alavés2–1
Wvs Real Madrid2–1
Wvs Osasuna4–0
W@ Real Sociedad3–0
L@ Athletic0–3
What would each result do to the table?
Lock it in the interactive simulator: Alavés winDrawAtleti win

FAQ

Who will win Alavés vs Atleti?

Footyntel's model makes an away win for Atleti the most likely result at 45%. Full split: Alavés win 30%, draw 25%, Atleti win 45%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Alavés vs Atleti?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–1 (Alavés 1–1 Atleti). Projected goals: Alavés 1.2, Atleti 1.6.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring.

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