Footyntel.

Eredivisie · Fixtures

Ajax 1–1 NEC

Eredivisie 2026/27 · Matchday 8 · Sat 10 Oct, 19:00 UTC · Full time

1 – 1

Ajax 1–1 NEC — the sides drew. Footyntel's pre-match model had rated a draw at 21%, and the exact 1–1 scoreline at about 8%.

Pre-match model view

Ajax win
50%
Draw
21%
NEC win
29%
Most likely score2–1
Projected goals2.2 – 1.6
Over 2.5 goals73%
Both teams score71%
AjaxLWWDD5th · 15 pts
NECLDLDD11th · 9 pts

Ahead of Ajax v NEC in the Eredivisie on 10 October 2026, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Ajax the most likely outcome at 50%. The single most probable scoreline is 2–1, with projected goals of 2.2 for Ajax and 1.6 for NEC. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and 71% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Ajax goals down (↓), NEC goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 3 meetings — Ajax 0W · 3D · 0L.

Ajax1–1NEC
Ajax1–1NEC
NEC2–2Ajax

Recent form

Ajax
Dvs NEC1–1
Dvs Excelsior2–2
Wvs Willem II5–1
W@ Sittard5–1
Lvs PSV1–3
NEC
D@ Ajax1–1
Dvs Go Ahead1–1
L@ Cambuur0–3
Dvs Excelsior2–2
Lvs Feyenoord1–3
What would each result do to the table?
Lock it in the interactive simulator: Ajax winDrawNEC win

FAQ

Who will win Ajax vs NEC?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Ajax the most likely result at 50%. Full split: Ajax win 50%, draw 21%, NEC win 29%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Ajax vs NEC?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 2–1 (Ajax 2–1 NEC). Projected goals: Ajax 2.2, NEC 1.6.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring.

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