Footyntel.

Championship · Fixtures

Derby County 1–1 Wrexham

Championship 2026/27 · Matchday 9 · Sat 10 Oct, 14:00 UTC · Full time

1 – 1

Derby County 1–1 Wrexham — the sides drew. Footyntel's pre-match model had rated a draw at 25%, and the exact 1–1 scoreline at about 12%.

Pre-match model view

Derby County win
40%
Draw
25%
Wrexham win
35%
Most likely score1–1
Projected goals1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.5 goals54%
Both teams score57%
Derby CountyLLLDD22nd · 5 pts
WrexhamDDLWD14th · 10 pts

Ahead of Derby County v Wrexham in the Championship on 10 October 2026, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Derby County the most likely outcome at 40%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–1, with projected goals of 1.5 for Derby County and 1.4 for Wrexham. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and 57% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Derby County goals down (↓), Wrexham goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 3 meetings — Derby County 0W · 2D · 1L.

Derby County1–1Wrexham
Derby County1–2Wrexham
Wrexham1–1Derby County

Recent form

Derby County
Dvs Wrexham1–1
D@ Burnley1–1
Lvs Birmingham1–2
Lvs West Brom0–1
L@ West Ham0–3
Wrexham
D@ Derby County1–1
Wvs Southampton2–1
L@ West Ham0–6
Dvs Burnley1–1
D@ Swansea0–0
What would each result do to the table?
Lock it in the interactive simulator: Derby County winDrawWrexham win

FAQ

Who will win Derby County vs Wrexham?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Derby County the most likely result at 40%. Full split: Derby County win 40%, draw 25%, Wrexham win 35%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Derby County vs Wrexham?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–1 (Derby County 1–1 Wrexham). Projected goals: Derby County 1.5, Wrexham 1.4.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring.

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