Mainz 3–4 Leverkusen

Bundesliga 2026/27 · Matchday 5 · Sat 10 Oct, 13:30 UTC · Full time

3 – 4

Mainz 3–4 Leverkusen — Leverkusen won. Footyntel's pre-match model had rated Leverkusen to win at 38%, and the exact 3–4 scoreline at about 2%.

Pre-match model view

Mainz win

41%

Draw

21%

Leverkusen win

38%

Most likely score2–1

Projected goals2 – 1.9

Over 2.5 goals76%

Both teams score74%

MainzDWLWL8th · 7 pts

LeverkusenLWDWW4th · 10 pts

Ahead of Mainz v Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on 10 October 2026, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for Mainz the most likely outcome at 41%. The single most probable scoreline is 2–1, with projected goals of 2 for Mainz and 1.9 for Leverkusen. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and 74% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — Mainz goals down (↓), Leverkusen goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

Head-to-head

Last 3 meetings — Mainz 0W · 1D · 2L.

Mainz3–4Leverkusen

Leverkusen1–1Mainz

Mainz3–4Leverkusen

Recent form

Mainz

Lvs Leverkusen3–4

W@ M'gladbach4–3

Lvs Frankfurt1–3

W@ HSV5–0

Dvs SC Paderborn0–0

Leverkusen

W@ Mainz4–3

Wvs RB Leipzig2–0

D@ Augsburg2–2

Wvs Union Berlin4–0

L@ Elversberg2–3

What would each result do to the table?
Lock it in the interactive simulator: Mainz win Draw Leverkusen win

FAQ

Who will win Mainz vs Leverkusen?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for Mainz the most likely result at 41%. Full split: Mainz win 41%, draw 21%, Leverkusen win 38%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for Mainz vs Leverkusen?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 2–1 (Mainz 2–1 Leverkusen). Projected goals: Mainz 2, Leverkusen 1.9.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring.

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