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Brasileirão Série A · Fixtures

São Paulo 2–1 Vitória

Brasileirão Série A 2026 · Matchday 30 · Sun 11 Oct, 00:00 UTC · Full time

2 – 1

São Paulo 2–1 Vitória — São Paulo won. Footyntel's pre-match model had rated São Paulo to win at 53%, and the exact 2–1 scoreline at about 9%.

Pre-match model view

São Paulo win
53%
Draw
26%
Vitória win
21%
Most likely score1–0
Projected goals1.5 – 0.8
Over 2.5 goals40%
Both teams score43%
São PauloLWLLW9th · 39 pts
VitóriaWDLWL12th · 36 pts

Ahead of São Paulo v Vitória in the Brasileirão Série A on 11 October 2026, Footyntel's model — built from each side's attack and defence strength and blended with last season's form — makes a home win for São Paulo the most likely outcome at 53%. The single most probable scoreline is 1–0, with projected goals of 1.5 for São Paulo and 0.8 for Vitória. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and 43% chance both teams score.

Scoreline probability

Model probability (%) of each scoreline — São Paulo goals down (↓), Vitória goals across (→). The outlined cell is the most likely result.

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Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings — São Paulo 2W · 0D · 2L.

São Paulo2–1Vitória
Vitória2–0São Paulo
Vitória1–0São Paulo
São Paulo2–0Vitória

Recent form

São Paulo
Wvs Vitória2–1
L@ Cruzeiro0–2
Lvs Santos1–2
Wvs Internacional1–0
L@ Palmeiras0–2
Vitória
L@ São Paulo1–2
Wvs Chapecoense4–0
Lvs Cruzeiro1–3
D@ Mirassol2–2
Wvs Grêmio1–0
What would each result do to the table?
Lock it in the interactive simulator: São Paulo winDrawVitória win

FAQ

Who will win São Paulo vs Vitória?

Footyntel's model makes a home win for São Paulo the most likely result at 53%. Full split: São Paulo win 53%, draw 26%, Vitória win 21%. It is a statistical model, not betting advice.

What is the predicted score for São Paulo vs Vitória?

The most probable scoreline from the model is 1–0 (São Paulo 1–0 Vitória). Projected goals: São Paulo 1.5, Vitória 0.8.

Will both teams score / will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring.

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